On the Record: Bets

933. By 2043 there will be archaeological discoveries demonstrating equal or greater architectural advancement to the monuments at Göbekli Tepe, dating from before 11,000 BC. 20 years
02023-02043 $400
$200 Samo Burja Scott Alexander

930. By 2035 there will be at least one public protest of more than 100 people in a G7 county against the switching off of a machine or software program on the grounds that it is sentient and has a right to live. 12 years
02023-02035 $400
$200 William E Hanbury Ansgar J Brenninkmeijer

899. By the year 2030, a computerized system will be used to call balls and strikes in the majority of Major League Baseball games 8 years
02022-02029 $400
$200 John Mantia David Abrams

887. By January 1st, 2037, Tesla will have been the first company with 1 million vehicles that are capable of SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States, with human-level safety or better, and this capability will be usable by the general public commercially. 15 years
02022-02037 $400
$200 Yarrow Bouchard Michael P Dierickx

883. An annual average temperature anomaly value above the 1850-1899 baseline will be published in the Berkeley Earth Global Temperature series as 2.0C or higher on or before the 2037 value (published in 2038). 17 years
02021-02038 $1,000
$500 John Mitchell Zeke Hausfather

868. Private Nonfarm business productivity growth will average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4). 9 years
02021-02030 $400
$200 Erik Brynjolfsson Robert J Gordon

858. No Republican will be President of the USA before December 30, 2039. 19 years
02021-02039 $400
$200 Michael d de la Maza Jason W Galbraith

854. The market capitalization of Berkshire Hathaway will be greater than Tesla on Warren Buffett's 100th birthday. 10 years
02020-02030 $500
$250 Adam J Mead Thatcher Ulrich

853. A bitcoin will be worth less than $1000US by the end of 2025. 5 years
02020-02025 $2,000
$1,000 Josh M Levine Thomas R Sohmers

852. By 2035 there will be at least 10 people living on Mars for a period of more than 2 months. 15 years
02020-02035 $500
$250 Andrew A Burchill Thomas A Davis